Goldman's Arjun Murti, Act 2

Goldman Sachs was back in the spotlight on oil prices. Goldman said in a research note that a "super-spike to $150-$200 a barrel is increasingly likely within the next 6-24 months. We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent and resulting in needed demand rationing in the OECD areas in particular the United States," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note Monday.

Three years ago Goldman shocked everyone with their prediction of a spike to the then unheard of price of $105. The analyst, Arjun Murti, was highly criticized for his $105 call when oil was only $55 at the time. Goldman's then CEO, Hank Paulson, now US Treasury Secretary, was forced to defend his bullish call. Today Murti said, "We believe we may be in the early stages of having the end game of our 'super-spike' thesis play out, with crude oil prices having risen over $50 a barrel since the U.S. economic crisis began last summer - a remarkable move and one that we think is fundamentally supported by tight global supply/demand balances. On the supply side, spare production capacity from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would continue to remain tight, with exports likely to be hampered by lackluster supply growth and sharply higher domestic demand," according to Murti.

"Meanwhile, non-OPEC crude production would also struggle to grow, particularly in Russia and Mexico. Cost inflation and restrictions on foreign investment in many exporting countries would further limit oil supply growth. On the demand side, a downturn in U.S. and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries consumption would be outpaced by strong demand growth in non-OECD countries, keeping oil market fundamentals tight," according to the Goldman analyst. Last month, Chakib Khelil, president of OPEC, also warned that oil could reach $200 a barrel. Open interest in crude options at the $200 strike has tripled since January. Oil prices hit a new high of $122.73 intraday and closed at $121.83.