News and commentary

No Easy Answer

By Vivian Lewis
Updated: Tuesday, August 05 2008 07:08:AM

  The real problem for China is the Silk Road thanks to which its Uighur neighbors developed immunity to Chinese germs over the course of centuries. Chinese were not as lucky in their Go-West push as the US whose native Americans lacked immunity to diseases people pick up from domesticated animals the Plains Indians had not encountered before. It was also easier to topple the Inca and Aztec Empires after their elite was decimated by disease and had lost credibility with the populace.

   But China moved its armies along trade routes to conquer people who knew its germs and were not about to abandon their separate religion or culture for the Han, who moreover were in need of the trade routes.They already hadrun into measles and chicken pox and flu, unlike native Americans. 

 Even in Xi'an, from 100 BC the first HanChinese imperial Chinese capital, there is a huge and show-cased Moslem population. Xi'an is not Cheyenne and they don't want to live on the Reservation.

  Given Chinese concerns to produce a perfect Olympics, little wonder that Moslem terrorists chose this month to strike. The hysteria I witnessed over Tibet "splittism" will be dwarfed by what will hit the Uighurs now. China has a low capacity for dealing with religious or racial minorities. This may be enough to offset the economic boost it should get from the Games.

   There is no easy answer for investors looking for profits these days. The price of oil failed to reignite despite scary hurricanes and other events which a few weeks ago would have impacted the price of crude. Despite our banking crisis, the dollar is slinking upward. This pushes down the gold price too.

  And global investing isn't a cureall either, according to the Citibank trackers of depositary receipts performance. July was a real bummer by the indexes with the world ex-US down 5.56% when US shares only lost 0.98%. Worst hit: MidEast and Central Europe/Russia, off 13.64%, followed by Latin America, down 10.72%.

  Year to date is not much cheerier with the main Euro-Pac markets off 14.51% vs the S&P dropof merely 13.34%.   

  Then there was yesterday with sevral of ourfavorites off sharply inthe wake of the oil price failing to rise.

   No, Do Not Sell.     

   *Schlumberger is worth more than %94.41 and Dryships is worth more than %66.78!

    *Teva is considering a bond issue of a sumbetween %500 mn and %1bn on the Tel Aviv market because the US bond market is so tight, to finance its takeover of Barr, rumor has it. TEVA.Q denies this. It last raised capital in Israel in 2004.

     *Glaxo is planning to set a ceiling on the price of its Tykerb breast cancer drug in Britain. Currently the National Health Service Naational Insstitute of Health and Clinical Excellence Service will not reimburse for the drug because of an alleged cost/benefit gap. GSK and patients want to get it to market.

   *Greater China Fund sent out notice to explain to shareholders that they only could get 55% of their recent dividend (plus factions) in cash. The rest was compulsarily paid out in shares. GCH will face shareholder discontent over this. 

   *As has been widely reported, the CFO of TNK-BP has also resigned. Watch this spot to see who wins the assets. OAO Gazprom is a contender.

    *Frida Ghitis reports that Mexican airport operator ASUR is shifting to a new region, Oaxaca, in addition to Cancun and the Riviera Maya. ASR is tripling its investment to NMP 300 mn over  the next3 years. A UNESCO world heritage site, the city features colonial art and architecture.

    *She also advises visitors to the Beijing Olympic  to ride the Bombardier train using very rapid transit technology for the airport to the Dongshimen Metro stop. BDRAF.PK is a Canadian stock she advises buying for its infrastructure and fuel-saving aviation products.